So. Here we are on November 9, 2016, a day on which many of us expected to be feeling relief that it was over and hope for the future. I suppose that there are many people out there (not many, of those reading this, I daresay) who in fact do feel that way. But for the rest of us, it will be a day that will live in our memories in disappointment and desolation. A day on which it seems that the U.S. voting population has decided that building a giant wall is the way to go. That America is no longer great, and that we need to get back to the time that it was. A day that it seems that half of the U.S. population is made of people who are so unlike me that they would give in to the outrageous claims that what America needs now is to have a leader who is amoral, crass, impulsive, misogynistic, bigoted, anti-science, and narcissistic. What happened to the America I used to believe in? Nowadays, the news that I read from Canada seem much friendlier and more familiar-feeling, although I would never leave my family and move there.
I just heard Hillary Clinton's concession speech a couple of hours ago. She expressed gratitude and hope, as well as disappointment. She inspired the thinking that all is not lost, that we need to keep working hard to make America and the world a better place. She expressed her ongoing love for her country. She wished Donald Trump well as the next President. I thought it was an excellent speech. I just can't relate to it, although I'm trying to take the inspirational message that we need to keep working to heart and action. But I certainly cannot say that I love my country, as she did. I am baffled by it, and ashamed.
I have a friend here in Huntsville who recently spent a lot of time in Dayton, Ohio, to help get out the vote there. I'm sure she did a lot of good. It was inspirational to see her do it and to hear and read her reports about it. Still, Ohio, my own native state, went to Trump, and it wasn't even especially close. Voter turn-out in my old stomping grounds of Cleveland was especially disappointing.
Damn the Electoral College! Why do we continue to hang on to that antiquated institution, anyway? More Americans voted for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump, so she ought to be President, right? And one has to wonder whether some of the mess the world is in now would not be so bad if Al Gore had won the 2000 election, which in fact he did, by the measure of popular vote. But not in the Electoral College.
So what changes will we see in the coming years? Where do I start? How about health care. Congress has tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act many times, but it was blocked by Obama. Now, we will have Republicans in control of both houses, and a Republican President, all having pledged to get rid of Obamacare. They say they are going to replace it. I think I have a good idea of what the replacement will be. It will be a marketplace of insurance companies, much like today, but without a convenient government-run web site. No big deal. What will change? The insurance companies will cross state lines (not a bad thing, as far as I can tell). There will be no requirement to have insurance nor penalty for not having it. That means that younger, healthier people will not bother with it, which will raise the price for the rest of us. There will be no requirement to cover pre-existing conditions, so forget about having a pre-existing condition covered if you haven't had continuous coverage. No requirement to cover birth control, though most policies will do so anyway, since it's a lot cheaper than the alternative of paying for pregnancies and new babies. The income tax law will have a "Health Savings Account" added to the options, whereby we pay for our own costs with savings that have been tax exempt. (But under that we wouldn't get those sweetheart discounts that the insurance companies have negotiated for themselves.) The effects of the "replacement" will generally be negative, namely even further increased costs and fewer people covered. Oh, and no subsidy for low income families. So there go another few million people off health insurance. I believe that we need a single-payer, socialist system ("Medicare for all") which is a long way off, given our current political situation.
How about international relations. Trump seems determined to be friends with Russia. Does that mean that one of the incentives for Russia to behave will be gone? I think so. I can envision Trump making a deal with Russia that we will not interfere with their adventures overseas, such as in Ukraine and Syria. And who knows where else in the future? I'm beginning to see a Hitler-Mussolini analogy, or at least a Hitler-Chamberlain one.
The U.S. has built a leadership position in the world as a champion for human rights. That's such common knowledge that I don't think I need to go through examples here. From everything he's said, Trump will discard that position like yesterday's garbage and will go into isolationist mode, as long as the rest of the world leaves us alone. Tyrants across the world will rejoice. (Kim of North Korea already is.)
But if the rest of the world doesn't leave us alone? Trump will be quick to the trigger. He will insist that we have the right to do whatever we want with our military, being the strong and righteous nation that we are, and if anyone messes with us, they will immediately feel the physical consequence of our military might.
But how about fiscal policy. Trump is a successful businessman, so he should know how to run an economy, right? That's shallow logic in and of itself, but it's especially questionable on its basic premise -- that Trump is a successful businessman. How do all the bankruptcies and numerous anecdotes about how he's failed to pay other (usually small) companies for money owed them jibe with that claim? And the downright fraud that he's perpetrated with Trump University? Looking a little closer at his "success," one sees that it is all based on debt - huge amounts, by the standards of the rest of us. In fact, he has said that he sees no problem with the U.S. government needing to greatly expand its debt, which will in fact be necessary if the tax cuts and increased spending that he (and other Republicans, still in control of Congress) want to enact. So, no. Without experience and knowledge of government finance and macroeconomic theory and practice, he does not have the right experience - just the opposite, in fact.
I need to stop this rant. Enough of how bad Trump is going to be for our nation. (And I've barely touched on it - the fact that he has a trial coming up in which he's being sued by a woman saying that he raped her as a child, for example.) The question is, "where do we go from here?" Or, more specifically, "where do I go from here?" Because the immediate issue to me is not so much what we do as a country or as an opposition party or force, but what actions can I take that would have some positive effect?
Two things are for sure: One, that there is no particular hurry on this day. I need to calm down and allow the anxiety level to ease up. But two, if I continue my usual pattern of putting things off until a later day, I will someday look back and regret my lack of action. So, I need to get moving on thinking about this and talking to others about it. Starting with this blog. Feel free to comment here or to speak with me personally.
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